Song-Chun Zhu (朱松纯), a prominent Chinese computer scientist, warns that China’s current AI narrative has “cognitive bias” at the 2025 ZGC Forum in Beijing.
I think that DeepSeek is doing a good job in providing sound advice on weighty economic matters. Consider the following:
Query: By what means can the US bring it's external account into balance?
The U.S. can bring its external account (current account) into balance through a combination of economic adjustments, policy measures, and structural reforms. Here are the key mechanisms:
### 1. **Exchange Rate Adjustment**
- A weaker **U.S. dollar** makes exports cheaper and imports more expensive, reducing the trade deficit.
- The Federal Reserve could influence the dollar's value via monetary policy (e.g., lower interest rates may depreciate the currency).
- However, excessive depreciation could trigger inflation or retaliation from trading partners.
### 2. **Fiscal Policy Changes**
- **Reducing the federal budget deficit** would decrease domestic demand for foreign capital, lowering the need for foreign financing and improving the current account.
- Higher savings (via reduced government borrowing or increased private savings) would reduce the savings-investment gap that drives external deficits.
### 3. **Structural Reforms to Boost Competitiveness**
- **Investment in productivity-enhancing infrastructure, education, and R&D** could make U.S. exports more competitive.
- Policies supporting advanced manufacturing and technology sectors could strengthen export capacity.
- Reducing trade barriers for key export industries (e.g., agriculture, energy, tech) could expand foreign sales.
### 4. **Trade Policy Adjustments**
- **Negotiating trade agreements** that open foreign markets to U.S. exports (e.g., agriculture, services, intellectual property).
- Addressing unfair trade practices (e.g., subsidies, dumping) through WTO disputes or targeted tariffs.
- However, protectionist measures (e.g., broad tariffs) risk retaliation and supply chain disruptions.
### 5. **Encouraging Domestic Energy Production**
- The U.S. is now a net energy exporter, but further expansion in **oil, gas, and renewables** could reduce energy-related imports and improve the trade balance.
- Higher interest rates could attract foreign capital, but this might also strengthen the dollar and worsen the trade balance in the short term.
- The Fed must balance domestic inflation goals with external sector impacts.
### 7. **Savings and Investment Rebalancing**
- **Increasing household and corporate savings** (e.g., via tax incentives) would reduce reliance on foreign capital inflows.
- Policies discouraging excessive consumption (e.g., higher taxes on luxury imports) could help narrow the trade deficit.
### 8. **Addressing Global Imbalances Cooperatively**
- The U.S. could work with surplus nations (e.g., China, Germany) to rebalance global demand (e.g., encouraging domestic consumption in those countries).
- International coordination (e.g., through the G20 or IMF) could prevent competitive devaluations.
### Challenges:
- The **exorbitant privilege** of the dollar allows the U.S. to sustain deficits longer than other nations, reducing urgency for adjustment.
- Sudden shifts (e.g., rapid dollar depreciation) could destabilize financial markets.
- Political resistance may hinder fiscal reforms (e.g., deficit reduction, tax increases).
### Historical Context:
- The U.S. last had a current account surplus in 1991, driven by factors like a weaker dollar post-Plaza Accord (1985) and a recession reducing imports.
- A gradual rebalancing is more sustainable than abrupt measures.
Would you like a deeper dive into any specific mechanism?
In addition I would have mentioned an effort to retrain from its 'constant warring'. The cessation of USAid is a step in the right direction. Cutting the number of bases on foreign soil is an obvious step in the right direction. Musk's efforts to reduce the deficit is worthy of mention.
When high priests in academia feel more sidelined than they feel just … been there. Doing your best to support and sort out the chaos of fast creative progress might bring the right kind of results and attention.
China's work toward the development of AI is of great interest, and it's wonderful to witness academia's growing importance (especially given my own academic inclinations). Thank you for translating!
> The true frontier of AI lies in using simulation and modeling to bring civilization, society, economy, and policy into the realm of testable, verifiable science
I’m wondering if Hong Kong and Singapore news work well enough to keep up with China. Two Sessions and China Development Forum may not fully come across in the news. What do you think? I miss out on the academic gems.
I think that DeepSeek is doing a good job in providing sound advice on weighty economic matters. Consider the following:
Query: By what means can the US bring it's external account into balance?
The U.S. can bring its external account (current account) into balance through a combination of economic adjustments, policy measures, and structural reforms. Here are the key mechanisms:
### 1. **Exchange Rate Adjustment**
- A weaker **U.S. dollar** makes exports cheaper and imports more expensive, reducing the trade deficit.
- The Federal Reserve could influence the dollar's value via monetary policy (e.g., lower interest rates may depreciate the currency).
- However, excessive depreciation could trigger inflation or retaliation from trading partners.
### 2. **Fiscal Policy Changes**
- **Reducing the federal budget deficit** would decrease domestic demand for foreign capital, lowering the need for foreign financing and improving the current account.
- Higher savings (via reduced government borrowing or increased private savings) would reduce the savings-investment gap that drives external deficits.
### 3. **Structural Reforms to Boost Competitiveness**
- **Investment in productivity-enhancing infrastructure, education, and R&D** could make U.S. exports more competitive.
- Policies supporting advanced manufacturing and technology sectors could strengthen export capacity.
- Reducing trade barriers for key export industries (e.g., agriculture, energy, tech) could expand foreign sales.
### 4. **Trade Policy Adjustments**
- **Negotiating trade agreements** that open foreign markets to U.S. exports (e.g., agriculture, services, intellectual property).
- Addressing unfair trade practices (e.g., subsidies, dumping) through WTO disputes or targeted tariffs.
- However, protectionist measures (e.g., broad tariffs) risk retaliation and supply chain disruptions.
### 5. **Encouraging Domestic Energy Production**
- The U.S. is now a net energy exporter, but further expansion in **oil, gas, and renewables** could reduce energy-related imports and improve the trade balance.
### 6. **Monetary Policy Tightening (with Caution)**
- Higher interest rates could attract foreign capital, but this might also strengthen the dollar and worsen the trade balance in the short term.
- The Fed must balance domestic inflation goals with external sector impacts.
### 7. **Savings and Investment Rebalancing**
- **Increasing household and corporate savings** (e.g., via tax incentives) would reduce reliance on foreign capital inflows.
- Policies discouraging excessive consumption (e.g., higher taxes on luxury imports) could help narrow the trade deficit.
### 8. **Addressing Global Imbalances Cooperatively**
- The U.S. could work with surplus nations (e.g., China, Germany) to rebalance global demand (e.g., encouraging domestic consumption in those countries).
- International coordination (e.g., through the G20 or IMF) could prevent competitive devaluations.
### Challenges:
- The **exorbitant privilege** of the dollar allows the U.S. to sustain deficits longer than other nations, reducing urgency for adjustment.
- Sudden shifts (e.g., rapid dollar depreciation) could destabilize financial markets.
- Political resistance may hinder fiscal reforms (e.g., deficit reduction, tax increases).
### Historical Context:
- The U.S. last had a current account surplus in 1991, driven by factors like a weaker dollar post-Plaza Accord (1985) and a recession reducing imports.
- A gradual rebalancing is more sustainable than abrupt measures.
Would you like a deeper dive into any specific mechanism?
In addition I would have mentioned an effort to retrain from its 'constant warring'. The cessation of USAid is a step in the right direction. Cutting the number of bases on foreign soil is an obvious step in the right direction. Musk's efforts to reduce the deficit is worthy of mention.
When high priests in academia feel more sidelined than they feel just … been there. Doing your best to support and sort out the chaos of fast creative progress might bring the right kind of results and attention.
China's work toward the development of AI is of great interest, and it's wonderful to witness academia's growing importance (especially given my own academic inclinations). Thank you for translating!
> The true frontier of AI lies in using simulation and modeling to bring civilization, society, economy, and policy into the realm of testable, verifiable science
Captivating indeed.
Yeah that’s a great quote!
Thanks for the translation.
I’m wondering if Hong Kong and Singapore news work well enough to keep up with China. Two Sessions and China Development Forum may not fully come across in the news. What do you think? I miss out on the academic gems.
I didn’t follow the two sessions closely sorry, check out this SCMP story https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3301606/years-two-sessions-beijing-ai-seems-be-everyones-lips